The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) has long been regarded as one of the most successful water-sharing agreements between two nations, India and Pakistan. Signed in 1960,brokered by the World Bank, the treaty divided the six major rivers of the Indus system between the two countries: India was given control over the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej), while Pakistan retained control over the western rivers (Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum). The treaty was an important diplomatic achievement, ensuring a framework for water sharing in a region that is politically sensitive and prone to conflict. This agreement has been crucial for the agricultural and economic sustenance of both nations.

ABOUT INDUS WATER TREATY

Genesis: Signed in 1960 between India and Pakistan mediated by the World Bank.

Water usage rights:

• Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej) for India’s unrestricted use.
• Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) are allocated to Pakistan, with India allowed for specific non-consumptive uses like navigation, floating of timber or other property, flood protection or flood control, fishing or fish culture.
• This gives India roughly 30% and Pakistan 70% of the water carried by the Indus River System.

Implementation: Requires both countries to create permanent Commissioners for Indus Waters to serve as the regular channel of communication on all matters relating to the implementation of the Treaty.

DISPUTE RESOLUTION MECHANISM (Three Level Graded Mechanism)

• Permanent Indus Commission (PIC): For questions concerning the interpretation or application of this Treaty or the existence of any fact which might constitute a breach of this Treaty.
• Neutral Expert: For technical disputes where the PIC cannot reach a consensus.
• Neutral Expert shall be appointed by the World Bank or jointly by the Government of India and the Government of Pakistan.
• Court of Arbitration: 7-member arbitral tribunal for legal adjudication of disputes if unresolved at lower levels.

Despite its enduring legacy, the Indus Water Treaty has faced significant challenges, especially in the context of strained relations between India and Pakistan. In recent years, political tensions have led to discussions about the future of the treaty, particularly in the wake of certain events that have tested its robustness. One such event is the Pahalgam attack in 2023, which led to India’s suspension of certain water-sharing commitments under the treaty.

THE SUSPENSION : A RESPONSE TO TERROR

India’s decision to suspend the treaty comes as a direct response to the terrorist attack in Pahalgam, which has been attributed to Pakistan-backed militants. The government has stated that this suspension will remain in effect until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably ceases its support for cross-border terrorism. This action is part of a broader diplomatic and economic crackdown on Pakistan, which includes the downgrading of diplomatic ties, visa cancellations, and border closures.

Why Water Matters in the India-Pakistan Context

• Water has always been a critical issue for both India and Pakistan. The Indus River system serves as a lifeline for millions of people in both countries, with agriculture being the primary beneficiary of its water. In Pakistan, about 90% of the country’s total water usage is dedicated to agriculture, while India uses the river water primarily for irrigation in Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan.
• Given the increasing stress on water resources due to climate change, population growth, and industrial development, any disruption to the flow of the Indus River system would have catastrophic consequences for both nations. Furthermore, the geographical positioning of the rivers means that any changes in their management or diversion can have direct and far-reaching impacts on the livelihoods of millions of people.
• The geopolitical tensions surrounding water resources highlight the vulnerability of shared resources in a conflict-prone region. While the Indus Water Treaty remains one of the few successful agreements in South Asia, its future depends on the ability of both nations to cooperate and resolve disputes peacefully.

IMPLICATIONS AND REACTIONS

The suspension of the IWT has far-reaching implications for both countries:

• Pakistan’s Concerns: Pakistan has reacted strongly to the suspension, with some officials even calling it an “act of war.” The country heavily depends on the waters of the western rivers, and any disruption in their flow could severely impact its agriculture and economy. The cessation of data sharing by India, as a consequence of the suspension, also leaves Pakistan vulnerable to unexpected floods or droughts.
• India’s Strategic Move: India’s move is seen as a strong diplomatic signal to Pakistan, aiming to pressure it to stop supporting terrorism. By holding the treaty in “abeyance,” India is not formally abrogating it, but rather pausing its obligations, including sharing water data and holding regular meetings of the Permanent Indus Commission. This allows India greater flexibility in utilizing the waters of the western rivers, potentially for new hydropower and irrigation projects.
• International Ramifications: The suspension of a long-standing treaty brokered by the World Bank has raised concerns internationally. Some experts believe it could set a dangerous precedent for other water-sharing agreements and could be seen as a violation of international law. There are also fears that this could further destabilize the already volatile relationship between India and Pakistan.

The future of the Indus Waters Treaty remains uncertain.

While India has stated that the suspension is temporary and linked to Pakistan’s actions on terrorism, the long-term consequences could be significant. The treaty has been a crucial mechanism for peace and cooperation in a region fraught with conflict. Its suspension not only threatens the water security of millions but also risks escalating tensions between two nuclear-armed neighbors.

Whether this is a temporary measure to exert pressure or a fundamental shift in India’s policy towards the treaty remains to be seen. However, one thing is clear: the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty is a development with profound implications for the region’s stability and the lives of millions who depend on the Indus River system. The world watches with bated breath as this critical chapter unfolds in the complex relationship between India and Pakistan.